Natural gas prices still under pressure

[geoffryd]

I just ran across this story on MSNBC. I'll try and link to it below.


http://www.msnbc.com/news/916330.asp?0dm=C1AMB

[pete f]

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp

weekly update and forcasts DOE
Looks higher for the year 40% more than last, were to make this up?

[Anonymous]

Good news, when everyone says things will go one way they normally go the other. If these people really knew when the price of gas was going they would not be writing about it - they would be mortgaging the farm and investing in futures. There are too many variables to accurately predict where gas will be in 3 months.

Check back here in three months.

[Rondo]

I was told a few years back that there is quite a few variables including huricanes, it seems if huricanes come up the east coast...it's bad, if they go to the gulf it's...ok

The gas fired power plants makes no since to me at all. Their poping up everywhere. One word.... COAL.

These plants are nothing but trouble for everybody.

[Glenn]

Huracanes in the Gulf are good? Most of the gas we use comes from offshore wells in the Gulf. Gas is popular for power plants because it's clean and easy. If a community announces it's building a new power plant or converting a coal plant, gas companies trip all over themselves offering to build pipelines to the plant free of charge. There probably hasn't been a new coal plant come online in 50 years. No new nuclear plants have been licensed since 3 Mile Island (1978). This year it's stayed cold in the north longer than normal. It's been very hot it south. Doesn't look good for gas prices. My price is up this month to .98 a therm after falling to .92 last month from 1.42 in March.

[brucefla]

my bulk prices kicked in this month

.64/therm PHEW

[pete f]

Rondo.. I think coal turns into diamonds after a few billion years..

The Gulf is home to many oil refineries and oil wells. Of couse gas is a by product of many oil wells, so the 'canes do make them shut down for the storm. They are short lived shut downs, and oil/gas is more a market risk than NG. Some electric plants have capability to switch fuels, that has been a problem if they go to NG becuase crude is high. Propane and NG have low stocks right now, not much better than crude. If the summer does not send a hot spell to the NE then NG stocks might get rebuilt sooner.

[Fred50]

Stupid newbie question?

When you folks quote gas prices, are you referring to the commodity cost only or the total cost (commodity, distribution, etc.)?

Thanks!

[Anonymous]

Mark, if you don't know the answer then it is not a stupid question. I think different people quote different things. I normally talk about the commodity price only, excluding the local delivery, sometimes this is called a city-gate price.

[brucefla]

I get 2 bills I was quoting my raw price from the wholesaler for the gas only. I signed onot a plan which will give me approx 15%
(based on last 3 years numbers) discount.

I get a seperate bill for transportation and some small fees

[Duane]

Kirby,

I quote my entire bill.

The delivery costs did go up for me this winter. The gas company probably raised the delivery costs thinking we wouldn't notice due to the high gas costs.

Now do you think they will lower the delivery costs later? No!

[Anonymous]

My local utility charges a winter premium of sorts. From Oct thru March I pay a demand charge, while I pay no demand charge the other six months. I find this to be rather unfair, as I have relatively constant demand all year, but it is just another way for the utility to rape you. I understand the need for this charge to cover the costs of moving more gas, but I would think I should actually get a discount as I am part of their baseline load - constant, that they can plan for.

[Glenn]

I quote the entire cost of getting gas molecules to my dryers and water heater. Commodity, transportation, several layers of taxes and fees.